Table 3 Input values used in the model to quantify the probability of freedom from Echinococcus multilocularis
Variables | Input values used in the model |
|---|---|
Initial prior probability of freedom | 0.5 |
Design prevalences | Â |
   Foxes | 1% |
   Raccoon dogs | 1% |
   Pigs with access to pasture | 0.01% |
   Wild boars | 0.02% |
   Rodents that are intermediate hosts for E. multilocularis | 0.24% |
Test sensitivities | Â |
   Coproantigen ELISA | Pert(0.4, 0.84, 0.93) |
   Sedimentation and counting technique | Pert(0.9, 0.98, 0.99) |
   PCR (Norway) | Pert (0.29, 0.5, 0.72) |
   PCR (Finland) | 0.35 × Pert (0.29, 0.5, 0.72) |
   Dissection rodents (investigations in Finland) | Pert(0.8, 0.9, 0.99) |
   Dissection rodents (investigations in Sweden) | Pert(0.08, 0.09, 0.099) |
   Meat inspection of pigs |  |
Probability of detecting lesions at slaughter | Pert(0.01, 0.1, 0.2) |
Probability of submitting a sample to laboratory | Pert(0.1, 0.2, 0.3) |
Probability of diagnosing E. multilocularis in laboratory | Pert(0.1, 0.4, 0.5) |
   Meat inspection of wild boars | 0.5 × the overall sensitivity of meat inspection of pigs |
Probability of introduction and establishment | Â |
   Probability of introduction by dogs to Sweden | Pert(0.13, 0.45, 0.64) |
   Probability of introduction by dogs to Norway | 0.5 × Pert(0.13, 0.45, 0.64) |
   Probability of introduction by dogs to Finland | 0.75 × Pert(0.13, 0.45, 0.64) |
   Probability of introduction by wildlife to Finland | 0.5 × 0.75 × Pert(0.13, 0.45, 0.64) |
   Probability of an infected dog excreting eggs | Pert(0.42, 0.6, 1) |
Probability of an infected dog excreting eggs in a suitable environment | Pert (0.3, 0.5, 0.7) |